As the last of the pandemic-era mortgages come up for renewal, one third of Canadian borrowers say they’re anxious about their new payments

Despite Canada’s low default rate, mortgage holders are concerned about increased monthly payments ahead

Highlights:

• 38% of borrowers expect their monthly mortgage payment to increase upon renewal; 31% anticipate their payments to stay approximately the same
• Saskatchewan and Manitoba have the highest share of respondents expecting an increase in their monthly mortgage payment at renewal.
• Nationally, 43% of respondents say they feel about the same as they did at their previous renewal, while 35% say they feel more anxious.
• 76% of respondents who expect their mortgage payment to increase say it will put pressure on their household finances.
• Despite potential increases, 71% of Canadians with an upcoming mortgage renewal say they will not change their living arrangements to avoid higher monthly payments.

TORONTO, Aug. 19, 2026 /CNW/ — The pandemic-era mortgage renewal wave is nearing its end, and with it comes increased anxiety for some Canadians. Over the next year, the last of the five-year, fixed-payment mortgages obtained during that record-low interest rate period will come up for renewal, representing approximately 12 per cent of all outstanding mortgages in Canada.¹ Although mortgage rates have fallen from the two-decade highs reached in mid-2023, many homeowners renewing now will still face higher borrowing costs.

According to a recent Royal LePage survey, conducted by Burson,² 38 per cent of Canadians with a mortgage on their primary residence expect their monthly mortgage payment to increase upon renewal, with 26 per cent anticipating a slight increase and 12 per cent expecting a significant jump. While many borrowers anticipate higher costs at renewal, concerns have eased since early 2025, when a majority of renewing mortgage holders (57%) expected their monthly payments to rise.³ Nationwide, 31 per cent of respondents today expect their mortgage payments to stay approximately the same, while 17 per cent expect their payment to decrease.

Homeowners who last renewed their mortgage when interest rates were at historic lows are the most likely to expect an increase in their monthly payment at their next renewal. The Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate stood at just 0.25 per cent in 2021 before rising to 4.25 per cent by the end of 2022.

“The pandemic-triggered era of ultra-low rates came to an abrupt halt in early 2022, having lasted less than two years. While many Canadians who secured record-low mortgages during this period have already navigated their renewals, the final major group of rock-bottom rate holders are up for renewal, and understandably, they are concerned,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage.

“What we are finding in practice is that families are managing the transition. Borrowing rates have retreated significantly from their post-pandemic peaks, while salaries and wages have continued to appreciate. While some households are adjusting discretionary spending to accommodate higher monthly mortgage payments, the widespread default crisis many feared simply hasn’t materialised – a testament in large part to Canada’s prudent lending standards.”

Respondents in Saskatchewan and Manitoba are the most likely to anticipate a higher monthly payment at renewal (43%), while those in Alberta are the least likely (29%). In the rest of the country, responses are broadly aligned, with 39 per cent of respondents in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada, and 37 per cent in British Columbia expecting an increase in their monthly payments.

“Many homeowners in Winnipeg expect their mortgage payments to increase at renewal, but that does not necessarily translate into financial stress. Our market doesn’t have a lot of the same issues that we see in major markets like Toronto and Vancouver. It has remained relatively affordable compared to Canada’s largest cities, and homeowners have benefited from strong price appreciation over the past several years,” said Elliot Didomenicantonio, sales representative and associate broker, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate in Winnipeg. “Because of this stability, mortgage renewals are not a huge concern for Winnipeg homeowners. In fact, many people are in a strong enough position to actually refinance their homes to fund renovations or make other investments.”

One third of mortgage holders feel anxiety over renewal

When asked how they feel about their upcoming mortgage renewal compared to their previous renewal, 43 per cent of respondents say they feel about the same as last time; approximately one third (35%) say they feel more anxious. Anxiety is highest among homeowners who last renewed their mortgage in 2021 or 2022.

“Anxiety is concentrated right where you would expect it, among homeowners who bought or refinanced when the overnight rate sat at 0.25 per cent,” said Soper. “Logically, no one expected rates to stay that low forever, but knowing a rate hike is coming intellectually and seeing the actual monthly dollar increase on paper are two very different things. Importantly, the vast majority of these 2021 borrowers were stress-tested at rates near five per cent or higher. They are moving into a rate environment they have already proven they can handle.”

Under federal mortgage qualification rules, borrowers must demonstrate they can afford payments at a rate higher than the one they are offered by their lender. Today, buyers must qualify at the greater of their contract rate plus two percentage points or 5.25 per cent.⁴ As a result, homeowners who purchased in 2021 were required to qualify at a minimum rate of 5.25 per cent, which is higher than most five-year fixed rates available today.

“Mortgage renewals are not a major source of concern for most of the clients I work with in Halifax. Many homeowners who purchased in 2021 qualified under the mortgage stress test at rates significantly higher than what they’re renewing at today, so they are generally well prepared for higher borrowing costs,” said Tanya Colbo, sales representative, Royal LePage Atlantic in Halifax. “While every situation is different, many buyers understand that the exceptionally low pandemic-era rates were temporary, and that preparation is helping make the renewal process more manageable.”

In Canada’s two most expensive housing markets, homeowners report higher-than-average anxiety about their upcoming renewals. Forty-five per cent of respondents in Vancouver and 39 per cent in Toronto say they feel more anxious than they did at their previous renewal. Meanwhile, 34 per cent of respondents in Montreal and 32 per cent in Calgary report feeling more anxious about their upcoming renewal.

“Anxiety around mortgage renewals tends to be greater in British Columbia because outstanding mortgage balances are often much larger. The same increase in interest rates that adds a few hundred dollars to a monthly payment in other parts of the country can have a much greater impact in Metro Vancouver,” said Adil Dinani, sales representative and team lead of the Dinani Group, Royal LePage West Real Estate Services in Greater Vancouver.

“Even so, most homeowners are looking for ways to stay in their homes rather than sell to reduce their housing costs. When payments put pressure on the household budget, many are exploring practical options, whether that is generating rental income, adjusting spending, or in some cases selling an investment property. People are adapting to changing conditions rather than making rushed decisions.”

Higher payments prompt budget adjustments

Among respondents expecting an increase in their monthly mortgage payment at renewal, 76 per cent say it will place financial strain on their household. Most describe that strain as slight (46%), while 30 per cent say it will be significant.

Alberta presents a notable contrast. Respondents in the province are the least likely in the country to expect a higher payment at renewal, but those who do anticipate an increase report the highest level of expected financial strain (82%). Respondents in Quebec are the least likely to anticipate strain (65%).

“The mortgage renewal crisis and subsequent market correction many anticipated has not become a reality in Montreal. Instead, higher rates have become a household budget issue – one that the vast majority of homeowners are managing,” said Sean Broady, certified real estate broker, Royal LePage Altitude in Montreal. “A homeowner who signed a mortgage at two per cent several years ago may now be facing a monthly payment that is hundreds of dollars higher. Yet, strong employment, accumulated home equity and Montreal’s comparatively affordable housing market have allowed most people to hang onto their homes.

“We’re through the worst of it. Today, we’re seeing homeowners adapt by tightening discretionary spending, holding off on upsizing or extending amortization periods in order to absorb the higher interest costs. But, what we are not seeing is panic selling or high rates of loan mortgage defaults in the region.”

To offset higher housing costs, homeowners expect to make practical adjustments to their household budgets. Among those anticipating financial strain upon renewal, 58 per cent say they will reduce discretionary spending, 48 per cent plan to cut back on travel, and 38 per cent intend to delay or cancel home renovations. Respondents could select more than one answer.

“There is a meaningful difference between a household adjusting its budget and a household in financial distress,” said Soper. “Trimming discretionary spending or delaying a renovation are choices made with room to spare; choices that reflect prudent planning rather than panic.”

Delinquencies edge higher yet remain historically low

Mortgage delinquency rates in Canada remain remarkably low by historical standards and by comparison to other advanced nations, though a modest increase suggests some households are feeling financial pressure as higher mortgage payments take effect.

According to the survey, eight per cent of respondents have extended their amortization period to reduce their monthly payments, while six per cent report having missed or deferred a mortgage payment at least once during their current mortgage term. Among those who missed a payment, 19 per cent say their mortgage was in arrears for 90 days or more.

Data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) shows the national delinquency rate (mortgages 90 days or more past due) rose from 0.21 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 0.24 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025.⁵ Despite this increase, delinquency rates remain well below pre-pandemic levels.

“There was a lot of discussion about the impact of pandemic-era mortgage renewals, but so far we haven’t seen the level of market disruption that some expected. Distressed sales have remained relatively limited, and a stable job market in British Columbia has helped many homeowners prepare for higher borrowing costs,” said Dinani. “In my experience, the conversations are less about mortgage rates alone and more about overall affordability and rising household expenses. Those feeling the greatest pressure tend to be homeowners who are already carrying higher debt levels or multiple properties.”

Toronto recorded one of the largest increases in mortgage delinquencies among major markets, rising from 0.20 per cent to 0.29 per cent between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025. While the city’s delinquency rate remains low by historical standards, the increase reflects the pressures borrowers face in one of Canada’s most expensive housing markets.

“Many feared that mortgage renewals in this period would be significantly worse for a lot more Canadians. The reality is much less scary: the mortgage stress test has actually saved a lot of households from being in a far more difficult position,” said Tom Storey, sales representative and head of The Storey Team, Royal LePage Signature Realty in Toronto. “That said, a certain percentage of homeowners simply won’t be able to afford their renewal and will be forced to sell. In Toronto, we’re already seeing power of sale occurrences increase compared to previous years, and this is usually a lagging indicator. Even when we get past the final wave of the hardest-hit mortgage renewers, we could still see a steady stream of defaults for a year or so afterward.”

Homeowners weigh their options as renewal approaches

Since October 2025, the Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate has remained at 2.25 per cent. Although conflict in the Middle East has put upward pressure on bond yields in recent months, contributing to slightly higher fixed mortgage rates, borrowing costs have remained relatively stable overall. Despite this stability, many homeowners have yet to decide what type of mortgage or lender they will choose at renewal.

According to the survey, 70 per cent of mortgage holders currently have a fixed-rate mortgage, while 29 per cent have a variable-rate mortgage. At renewal, 43 per cent plan to choose a fixed rate, 16 per cent intend to select a variable rate, and 39 per cent say they will review their options before making a decision. While nearly half of respondents (49%) expect to remain with their current lender, 44 per cent plan to compare lenders before deciding.

“Interest rates remain an important part of the conversation, but they are only one piece of the affordability picture,” said Natosha Wareham-Bakker, sales representative, Royal LePage Benchmark in Calgary. “Homeowners are taking a broader look at their finances and asking how much they want to dedicate to housing over the next several years. For many, the goal is to ensure their housing costs leave room for the rest of their financial priorities. In most cases, the renewal itself is not driving the decision to move. Rather, it serves as a natural point to reassess their options and plan for the next stage of life.”

Higher mortgage payments unlikely to prompt widespread moves

Most homeowners have no plans to change their living arrangements despite the prospect of higher mortgage payments. When asked whether they are considering making a change to reduce their housing costs at renewal, 71 per cent of borrowers say they are not. Among the 22 per cent who are considering a change, seven per cent are looking at relocating to a more affordable region, while five per cent are considering renting out part of their home to offset mortgage costs. Another five per cent say they are considering downsizing.

“Most homeowners facing renewal are deciding how to fit a higher payment into their budget, not whether they can afford to keep their home,” concluded Soper. “Home ownership remains a deeply held priority for Canadians, and as this final group of pandemic-era mortgages renews, we see no evidence this is changing.”

Royal LePage 2026 Mortgage Renewal Survey – Data Chart:

rlp.ca/table-2026-mortgage-renewal-survey 

About the Survey

Burson used the Leger Opinion online panel to survey 1,127 Canadians renewing their mortgage, aged 18+. The survey was completed between July 20th and August 6th 2026. Representative sampling was done across all provinces (Atlantic provinces were aggregated and Saskatchewan was aggregated with Manitoba), with oversampling in SK/MB, Toronto CMA,  Montreal CMA, Vancouver CMA, and Calgary CMA. Household ownership weighting was applied to ensure representation at a CMA/province/region level, according to 2021 census figures. No margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample (i.e., a web panel in this case). For comparative purposes, though, a probability sample of 1,127 respondents would have a margin of error of ±3%, 19 times out of 20.

About Royal LePage

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of approximately 20,000 real estate professionals in over 670 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage® Shelter Foundation™, which has been dedicated to supporting women’s shelters and domestic violence prevention programs for more than 25 years. Royal LePage is a Bridgemarq Real Estate Services® company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE. For more information, please visit www.royallepage.ca.

Royal LePage® is a registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada and is used under licence by Bridgemarq Real Estate Services®.

SOURCE Royal LePage Real Estate Services

Featured Image: Megapixl @ Sueharper

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