In January, silver did something it had never done in history. It broke $100 per ounce,¹ kept climbing, and touched an all time high of $121.62.²

Then it crashed. Margin hikes, a hawkish Fed nomination, and profit taking after a 147% run in 2025 unwound the speculation, and by mid July the metal had fallen 52% from its peak, finding support in the mid $50s.

Most investors watched the crash and assumed the silver story was over. They were staring at the chart. They should have been watching Washington.

Because while the price was falling, the United States government was quietly moving in the opposite direction.

It added silver to its official list of Critical Minerals, placing the metal alongside copper and uranium as a material Washington now treats as essential to national security.³

It launched a $12 billion strategic minerals stockpile and began taking equity stakes in companies building American mines and processing plants.⁴

Then, just last month on August 7, the President stood before 200 mining executives at the State Department and announced $3 billion more for defense metal supply chains, calling critical minerals “the raw materials of American strength.” ⁵

The urgency is not theoretical. Five months of war with Iran burned through precision guided missiles and air defense interceptors that could take years to replace, and those weapons run on conductive metals. Silver is the most electrically conductive metal on earth.⁶

The market already trades on this new reality. In January, when the administration merely delayed critical minerals tariffs, silver fell 6% in a single day.⁷ Governments do not stockpile what they expect to be plentiful, and markets do not react to policies that do not matter.

And while the crowd sold and Washington bought, one company quietly produced the strongest H1 in its 23 year history.

Record revenue. Record cash flow. Record margins. A dividend raised 217%. Production guidance raised for the second consecutive year. And a treasury that grew to a record $1.25 billion by June 30, up 34% in six months, during the worst silver crash in decades.⁸

That company is First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG).

Here is why the timing matters now. Silver has turned. The metal bottomed in the mid $50s in July, rallied through the Fed’s decision to hold rates, and is currently trading at $64.36 per ounce.⁹ Yet the full year forecasts from the professionals sit far above that: JPMorgan at $81, a Reuters poll of 30 analysts at $79.50, ING at $78.¹⁰

And the analysts covering the stock itself have gone further. The consensus rating is Strong Buy, with an average price target almost 36% above where the shares closed on September 16.¹¹

A crash that proved the business. A rally that just started. A billion dollar treasury. And a stock the professionals say is worth a third more than its price.

That is the story. Here is the evidence, starting with the four numbers that define First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) today.¹²

The Cheapest Cash Machine in Silver

Before the mines, the metal, and the macro, look at one comparison. It is the reason First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) deserves your attention before any other name in the sector.

Every major silver producer benefits when silver rises. The question is how much of what you are buying is actually silver, and how much you are paying for it.

Start with purity. At First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG), silver is 63% of revenue this year, with precious metals at 92%.¹³ Pan American Silver and Coeur Mining generate only about a quarter of its revenue from silver. 

Now the price you pay for the earnings. The company earned $0.26 per share in the first quarter¹⁴ and $0.22 in the second,¹⁵ or $0.48 in six months. Annualize that and the stock trades at roughly 18 times its current earnings power.

Pan American trades near 17 times trailing earnings.¹⁶ Hecla trades in the mid 30s as well.¹⁷ Both are fine companies. Neither is priced like this one.

Then add what the peers simply do not have. A $1.25 billion treasury, meaning roughly 13 cents of every dollar of market cap is backed by cash before you count a single mine.

Free cash flow of $418 million in the first half alone, after taxes. On a $9.34 billion company, that pace works out to one of the strongest cash flow yields among the major producers.

A dividend policy paying out 2% of revenue every quarter, which is why the payout just rose 217% year over year. And a share buyback that retired 1.2 million shares in Q2.¹⁸

Run the cash flow yield and the gap widens further. First half free cash flow of $418 million annualizes toward more than $800 million, roughly a 9% free cash flow yield on the current market value of First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG). Very few producers of any metal, at any size, are converting revenue into distributable cash at that pace.

Historically, First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) has delivered a 2 to 3x beta to the silver price over the full cycle.  The purest exposure, the fastest cash build, and the lowest multiple on current earnings. That is the whole table in one sentence.

Wall Street Ran the Same Numbers and Called It a Strong Buy

You do not have to take this page’s word for the math. The professionals who cover First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) for a living just ran it themselves, and their conclusions are public.

As of September 16, the consensus rating is Strong Buy, with an average 12 month price target of $25.29 against a close of $18.96. That is 36% above the market price, with a high target of $27 and a low of $22.50.¹⁹

Watch the dates. Three of the five most recent analyst actions landed in the two weeks after the Q2 results and the guidance raise.²⁰

Three details make the coverage of First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) unusually persuasive.

First, the accuracy leader is the most bullish. TipRanks ranks H.C. Wainwright’s Heiko Ihle as the most accurate analyst covering the stock, with a 74% one year success rate and a 91% average return on his calls. He holds the $27 high target.

Second, there is not a single Sell rating anywhere in the trend data. Not one, across every month tracked this year.

Third, even the lone Hold implies upside. Scotiabank’s $22.50 target sits roughly 19% above the September 16 close. When the most cautious analyst on the street sees double digit upside, the debate is about how much, not whether.

And consider when those targets were written. Most were set with silver in the $50s and $60s, before the current rally found its footing. If the metal keeps tracking toward the $79 to $81 the forecasters project, the analysts covering First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) will be updating their models from underneath, not from above.

The Crash Was the Audit and the Company Passed It in Public

Anyone can look good at $120 silver. The question that separates real mining companies from stories is simpler: what happens when the metal falls in half?

For First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG), the answer is now a matter of public record, one quarter at a time.

First quarter, reported May 12, with silver already far off its high: revenue of $476.7 million, up 95%. Net earnings of $128.1 million, or $0.26 per share. Free cash flow of roughly $224 million. A then record treasury of $1.13 billion. The company even held back $63.6 million of bullion rather than sell it into weakness.²¹

Second quarter, reported July 30, spanning much of the so-called crash: revenue of $415.5 million, up 57%. Net earnings up 108% to $109.4 million. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.21, versus $0.04 a year earlier. Free cash flow of $194.6 million after paying $46.8 million in cash taxes.²²

The margin math explains how. The company’s all-in sustaining cost margin reached $40.27 per ounce, nearly triple the $13.60 of a year earlier, because realized silver prices of $63.98 were still up 90% year over year even after the “crash”.²³

Put the half together and the records stack up. First half revenue of $892 million, up 76%. EBITDA of $559 million at a 63% margin, up 156%. Operating cash flow of $559 million. Every one of those is the best six month stretch in the history of First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG).

And management acted like owners at the lows. It bought back 1.2 million shares for $22.7 million during the second quarter, raised the dividend under its new 2% of revenue policy, and finished June sitting on $78 million of unsold silver and gold inventory, held on purpose into the recovery.²⁴

When the treasury first crossed $900 million, CEO Keith Neumeyer put it plainly:

It has grown by more than $300 million since he said it.²⁵

First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) did not survive the crash. It compounded through it.

Six Years of Deficit and a Metal Trading $14 Below What the Forecasters Say

The crash changed the price of silver. It did not change a single ounce of the supply and demand math underneath it.

2026 is the sixth consecutive year the world will consume more silver than it produces. The cumulative shortfall since 2021 is over 800 million ounces.

The supply side cannot respond effectively, which is precisely what makes a primary producer like First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) scarce. Roughly 74% of global silver is mined as a byproduct of other metals, so higher silver prices do not summon new supply. Annual consumption runs about 1.113 billion ounces against mine production of roughly 844 million.²⁶

Meanwhile the demand side keeps compounding. Industrial demand has risen about 30% since 2020 to 657 million ounces, and now consumes approximately 78% of all mined production. Solar alone takes 198 million ounces, up 140% since 2020, with silver accounting for up to a quarter of a panel’s manufacturing cost. AI, automotive, grid investment, military, and robotics all stack on top.²⁷

Now overlay the price. Silver trades at $64.36 as of September 16. The LBMA’s 2026 analyst consensus is $79.50. JPMorgan’s base case is $81.²⁸

None of that machinery paused during the crash. The deficit does not care what the futures market does in a given quarter, and every year of shortfall draws down finite above ground stockpiles. The structural engine runs regardless, and First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) is the most concentrated way on the market to own it.

And here is the line that should stay with you. First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) built its entire 2026 cost guidance on a silver price assumption of $52 per ounce. The metal is $13 above the budget today, and the professional forecasts sit $27 above it.

Every dollar above that assumption is margin the plan never required.

Washington Just Made Silver a Matter of National Security

You met this force at the top of the page. Now look at it in full, because nothing in the silver story this year is bigger, and almost nobody is pricing it yet.

Silver’s new status as a US Critical Mineral places it on the government’s strategic list alongside copper and uranium, metals Washington now treats as essential to national security.²⁹

The policy machinery behind that label is moving fast. Since returning to office, the administration has launched a $12 billion strategic minerals stockpile and backed equity investments in companies developing American mines and processing facilities.

Keep that in mind as you read the next paragraph, because the events of the past month put a company like First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) directly in the policy tailwind.

Then, on August 7, President Trump stood before more than 200 mining executives, educators, investors and politicians at the State Department and announced $3 billion in new investments in minerals and battery projects for defense supply chains, and described the stakes in six words:³⁰

“The raw materials of American strength,”

– President Donald Trump

The reason is not abstract. Five months of war with Iran has burned through precision guided missiles and air defense interceptors, and defense officials warn that replenishing some inventories could take years. The market already trades on this channel. When the administration merely delayed critical minerals tariffs in January, silver fell 6% in a single day.

Here is what makes that backdrop matter for First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) specifically. Jerritt Canyon and First Mint are American operations, in Nevada, and the company is one of the few primary silver producers with a growing US footprint at the exact moment silver holds critical mineral status.

The January episode already showed how directly the metal trades on this channel. The rest of the market is still learning what the critical minerals list means for the one metal on it that industry actually consumes faster than mines produce it.

Guidance Raised for the Second Straight Year While the Mills Set Records

On July 8, management did something companies only do from a position of strength. It raised full year production guidance for the second consecutive year.³¹

Silver production guidance rose 10%, to 14.6 to 15.5 million ounces. Gold guidance rose 7%, to 128,000 to 135,000 ounces. Mine by mine, La Encantada was raised 19%, San Dimas 13%, Los Gatos 5%, and Santa Elena’s gold outlook 10%.

The operations are outrunning their own targets. Los Gatos averaged a record 4,078 tonnes per day of throughput in June, already ahead of the 4,000 tonne goal set for the second half. Santa Elena’s mill set a quarterly throughput record. Both expansion projects aim to be complete in the third quarter.

La Encantada, the portfolio’s pure silver mine, grew production 65% year over year in Q2.³² CEO Keith Neumeyer summarized the quarter with the phrase every investor wants to read: “pleased to increase our production guidance for the second consecutive year.”

Behind the guidance sits an expanded machine. First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) lifted its 2026 capital program 47% to as much as $344 million, is completing roughly 55,000 metres of underground development, and is drilling approximately 308,000 metres across the portfolio this year, one of the largest exploration programs in the silver industry.

More ounces, from mills running at record levels, sold into a rising metal price environment, by a company budgeted at $52. That is what operating leverage looks like before the market prices it.

Four Producing Mines, Two Permitted Discoveries, a Pipeline Mine and $150 Million of Housecleaning

First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) operates four producing underground mines across three world class silver districts in Mexico, with a combined land package of over 350,000 hectares.

Los Gatos in Chihuahua is the low cost anchor. Q2 all in sustaining costs of $16.82 per ounce make it one of the most profitable silver mines in the hemisphere at today’s prices, and its 103,000 hectare district remains largely undrilled.

Santa Elena is where the growth story compounds fastest. The Navidad discovery now hosts a 63.4 million ounce silver equivalent resource, and the newer Santo Niño discovery carries a 27.4 million ounce maiden resource, both within two kilometres of an operating plant.

In June, both discoveries received their construction permits ahead of schedule, and First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) committed $12 million to advance the Santo Niño portal for near term mining.³³ These are no longer drill results on a map. They are permitted projects under construction beside a paid-for mill.

San Dimas, the 250 year old cornerstone district, resolved a labour disruption during Q2 and still had its full year guidance raised 13%. First Majestic just released updated exploration results that showed continued mineralization and several new targets. Then there is La Encantada, the purest silver expression First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) owns. It produces silver and nothing else, and after a 65% production surge in Q2 it is running at records, with every recovered ounce translating dollar for dollar into the silver price with no byproduct math in the way.

Across the portfolio, proven and probable reserves stand at 184.8 million silver equivalent ounces, with another 652.8 million ounces Measured and Indicated and 592.3 million Inferred behind them.³⁴

And management spent 2026 pruning everything that did not earn its keep. The idle Del Toro mine was sold in June for up to $60 million, leaving First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) holding roughly a quarter of the buyer, Sierra Madre, for upside if the mine revives.³⁵

Then in July, the San Martin mine, idle since 2019, was sold for $90 million in structured cash payments.³⁶ Two non-earning assets converted into as much as $150 million of consideration, without touching a single producing ounce.

Jerritt Canyon Puts American Gold Under the Silver Story

Remember the critical minerals section above. Now look at what the company is building on American soil.

The fully permitted Jerritt Canyon Gold Mine in Elko County, Nevada is in active restart, backed by a committed $75 million program targeting production in the second half of 2027.³⁷

This is not a plan on paper. First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) has placed purchase orders for an initial fleet of 17 Sandvik underground units. The contractor has completed 3,380 metres of underground rehabilitation. BBA is engaged on the processing plant, and Stantec’s pre feasibility study lands in the fourth quarter of this year.

The resource base is substantial: 4.1 million ounces of gold in Measured and Indicated categories plus 3.7 million ounces Inferred,³⁸ and the site hosts one of only three roasting facilities in the entire state of Nevada, a processing advantage that is essentially irreplaceable.³⁹

The drills are already turning. Two surface rigs completed more than 12,000 metres at Jerritt Canyon in the second quarter alone, testing open pit potential along the Central and Northern trends while underground drilling defines the first mining areas.⁴⁰ For First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG), this is a second engine being assembled in plain sight, in the safest mining jurisdiction on earth.

At recent gold prices above $4,300 per ounce, most analyst models that exclude Jerritt Canyon are, by definition, incomplete. The pre feasibility study in Q4 is the catalyst that forces the update.

The Only Miner on Earth That Mints Its Own Metal and Keeps the Premium

First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) remains the only publicly traded mining company in the world with its own minting facility. First Mint, in Nevada, turns mined silver into bars, coins, and medallions sold directly to the public.

The premium is not theoretical. Year to date, First Mint has generated $18.2 million in revenue at an average realized price of $83.15 per ounce, while spot silver spent most of that stretch in the $50s and $60s.

Apple designed its own chips to remove middlemen and capture the margin. First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) built its own mint for the same reason. No competitor has copied it, and in a critical minerals era, an American minting asset carries strategic value beyond the premium it earns.

A Billion Dollar Treasury and Debt That Costs Almost Nothing

Strip the story down to the balance sheet and the picture gets even better.

The $1.25 billion treasury breaks down as $1,093 million of cash plus $159 million of restricted cash. Working capital sits at a record $876 million, including $155 million of marketable securities: 3% of Metalla, roughly 25% of Sierra Madre, and 17% of Silver Storm. Add a $160 million undrawn revolver and total liquidity exceeds one billion dollars.⁴¹

Against that, the debt is almost embarrassingly cheap: $350 million of convertible notes at 0.125% interest and $55 million at 0.375%.⁴² Read those rates again. The company holds nearly $1.1 billion of cash against roughly $405 million of borrowings costing well under half a percent.

That cash is not sitting idle. First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) expanded its 2026 capital program 47% to $318 to $344 million, funding the Jerritt restart, the Santo Niño and Santa Elena development, and a 308,000 metre exploration program, all internally financed.

Ownership tells the same story. Institutions hold 60% of the stock, led by Van Eck at 7.3%, alongside Vanguard and BlackRock, with CEO Keith Neumeyer personally holding 1%. ⁴³

For traders, the structure is liquid and clean: 493 million shares outstanding, approximately $225 million in average daily trading liquidity, and a 52 week range of $7.74 to $32.03 that shows exactly how far this stock travels across a silver cycle. At $18.96, First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) sits in the lower half of that range while posting the best numbers in its history.

Why This Specific Moment Is Worth a Second Look

Every element of this story has a date attached, and most of those dates are in the next two quarters.

The metal has turned but not recovered. Silver at $64.36 is well off the July lows yet still $14 to $15 below the professional consensus for the year, and the gold to silver ratio remains stretched in silver’s favor. The Stantec pre feasibility study on Jerritt Canyon arrives in Q4. The next dividend, 217% larger than last year’s, which was paid on August 31.

For balance, know the risks in plain terms. Costs rose roughly 20% year over year on a stronger peso, higher royalties, and a changed silver to gold ratio, and cost guidance was nudged 4% higher. Silver itself is one of the most volatile assets in any market, and it can fall as fast as it rises.

But hold the full picture in one frame. First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:AG) just proved, in public, across the worst silver crash in decades, that it generates record cash at prices far below today’s. Its budget assumes $52 silver. The metal is currently at $64.36 and rising. The forecasters say $79 to $81. The analysts say Strong Buy with nearly a 36% upside. Washington calls the metal a matter of national security.

And the whole machine trades at roughly 20 times its current earnings power while its larger, less silver pure peers trade near 35.

The pullback was never the risk. It was the audit. The company passed, and the market is only beginning to grade the results.

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